The 30th Independent Spirit Awards Predictions

Here we are at the last stop before Hollywood’s biggest night, which is tomorrow! The penultimate ceremony being the Independent Spirit Awards which honors films produced outside of major film studios. This ceremony will air tonight at 5:30 EST on IFC and is hosted by Kristen Bell & Fred Armisen.

Here are the nominees:

Best Feature
Birdman
Boyhood
Love is Strange
Selma
Whiplash

Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: Boyhood

Best First Feature
Dear White People- Justin Simien, Effie Brown, Ann Le, Julia Lebedev, Angel Lopez, and Lena Waithe
A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night- Ana Lily Amirpour, Justin Begnaud, and Sina Sayyah
Nightcrawler- Dan Gilroy, Jennifer Fox, Tony Gilroy, Jake Gyllenhaal, David Lancaster, and Michel Litvak
Obvious Child- Gillian Robespierre & Elisabeth Holm
She’s Lost Control- Anja Marquardt, Mollye Asher, and Kiara Jones

Will Win: Nightcrawler
Could Win: A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
Should Win: Nightcrawler

Best Director
Damien Chazelle- Whiplash
Ava DuVernay- Selma
Alejandro González Iñárritu- Birdman
Richard Linklater- Boyhood
David Zellner- Kimiko, the Treasure Hunter

Will Win: Richard Linklater
Could Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu or Ava DuVernay
Should Win: Richard Linklater

Best Female Lead
Marion Cotillard- The Immigrant
Rinko Kikuchi- Kimiko, the Treasure Hunter
Julianne Moore- Still Alice
Jenny Slate- Obvious Child
Tilda Swinton- Only Lovers Left Alive

Will Win: Julianne Moore
Could Win: Marion Cotillard
Should Win: Julianne Moore

Best Male Lead
André Benjamin- Jimi: All Is by My Side
Jake Gyllenhaal- Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton- Birdman
John Lithgow- Love is Strange
David Oyelowo- Selma

Will Win: Michael Keaton
Could Win: David Oyelowo
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal

Best Supporting Female
Patricia Arquette- Boyhood
Jessica Chastain- A Most Violent Year
Carmen Ejogo- Selma
Emma Stone- Birdman
Andrea Suarez Paz- Stand Clear of the Closing Doors

Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Could Win: Emma Stone
Should Win: Patricia Arquette

Best Supporting Male
Riz Ahmed- Nightcrawler
Ethan Hawke- Boyhood
Alfred Molina- Love is Strange
Edward Norton- Birdman
J.K. Simmons- Whiplash

Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Could Win: Edward Norton
Should Win: J.K. Simmons

Best Screenplay
Big Eyes- Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
Love is Strange- Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias
A Most Violent Year- J.C. Chandor
Nightcrawler- Dan Gilroy
Only Lovers Left Alive- Jim Jarmusch

Will Win: Nightcrawler
Could Win: A Most Violent Year
Should Win: Nightcrawler

Best First Screenplay
Appropriate Behavior- Desiree Akhavan
Dear White People- Justin Simien
Little Accidents- Sara Colangelo
She’s Lost Control- Anja Marquardt
The One I Love- Justin Lader

Will Win: She’s Lost Control
Could Win: Dear White People
Should Win: Dear White People

Best Cinematography
Birdman- Emmanuel Lubezki
A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night- Lyle Vincent
It Felt Like Love- Sean Porter
Selma- Bradford Young
The Immigrant- Darius Khondji

Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
Should Win: Birdman

Best International Film
Ida (Poland)- Pawel Pawlikowski
Leviathan (Russia)- Andrey Zvyagintsev
Mommy (Belgium)- Xavier Dolan
Norte, the End of History (Philippines)- Lav Diaz
Force Majeure (France)- Ruben Östlund
Under the Skin (United Kingdom)- Jonathan Glazer

Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Leviathan
Should Win: Under the Skin

Best Documentary
20,000 Days on Earth- Iain Forsyth, Jane Pollard, Dan Bowen, and James Wilson
Citizenfour- Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy, and Dirk Wilutzky
Stray Dog- Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
The Salt of the Earth- Juliano Ribeiro Salgado, Wim Wenders, and David Rosier
Virunga- Orlando von Einsiedel & Joanna Natasegara

Will Win: Citizenfour
Could Win: Virunga
Should Win: Citizenfour

Best Editing
Boyhood- Sandra Adair
Whiplash- Tom Cross
Nightcrawler- John Gilroy
A Most Violent Year- Ron Patane
The Guest- Adam Wingard

Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Nightcrawler

John Cassavetes Award
Blue Ruin- Jeremy Saulnier, Richard Peete, Vincent Savino, and Anish Savjani
It Felt Like Love- Eliza Hittman, Shrihari Sathe, and Laura Wagner
Land Ho!- Aaron Katz, Martha Stephens, Christina Jennings, Mynette Louie, and Sara Murphy
Man from Reno- Dave Boyle, Joel Clark, Michael Lerman, and Ko Mori
Test- Chris Mason Johnson & Chris Martin

Will Win: Land Ho!
Could Win: Blue Ruin
Should Win: Land Ho!

*This award commemorates a creative film team that made a film with a budget less than $500,000.

Truer Than Fiction Award
Approaching the Elephant- Amanda Wilder
Evolution of a Criminal- Darius Clark Monroe
The Kill Team- Dan Krauss
The Last Season- Sara Dosa

Will Win: Approaching the Elephant
Could Win: The Last Season
Should Win: The Last Season

*This award commemorates an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant attention.

Someone to Watch Award
Ana Lily Amirpour- A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
Rania Attieh & Daniel Garcia- H.
Chris Eska- The Retrieval

Will Win: Ana Lily Amirpour
Could Win: Chris Eska
Should Win: Ana Lily Amirpour

Producers Award
Chad Burris
Elisabeth Holm
Chris Ohlson

Will Win: Chad Burris
Could Win: Elisabeth Holm
Should Win: Elisabeth Holm

Robert Altman Award
Inherent Vice

Special Distinction Award
Foxcatcher